Economist advises Govt to “stop borrowing!”

first_imgGuyana’s $330B public debtBy Samuel SukhnandanAs Guyana’s debt continues to rise, there have been some concerns in several quarters of society that the coalition Government’s spending is spiralling out of control and should be better managed, or the country could be faced with insurmountable challenges in years to come.Russia-trained economist and political commentator Ramon Gaskin is one of those persons who believe that the current Administration needs to do a better job at handling its financial affairs. Although debt has been an issue for many years, Gaskin considers this Government to be responsible for adding to the burden.“This Government loves to borrow all the time. They love to borrow everything. They should just stop it. The problem is not the revenue (collection), it’s the expenditure,” the outspoken economist told Guyana Times.According to him, one of the best examples to show the David Granger-led Government has to take blame is the massive increase of the Disciplined Services payroll from $4.2 billion to $7 billion.Gaskin noted that the increase was close to 60 per cent and included all the contract workers who have been employed to work within or advise on the Disciplined Services.While the coalition Government has broadened its revenue collection base by implementing several new measures since taking office, the economist said that focus now needed to be placed on broadening this base, to include royalties for Guyana’s natural resources, particularly bauxite.“We have to start to get royalties that are being shipped out of Guyana. There is no country in the world that allows you to ship out natural resources or non-renewable without charging you royalties,” he advised, noting that locals were already overburdened by heavy taxation.Gaskin told this newspaper that if certain measures were not implemented soon, Guyana’s debt could spiral out of control and this could have a negative impact on the local economy. He also noted that Guyana’s debt has been increasing steadily over the years, at both the domestic and external levels.“It is easier to service the debt now, because the economy is much bigger. But we are going back to the phase in 1992 where the per capita debt hasn’t changed much over the years,” he explained. He said 75 to 80 per cent of the old debt from 1992 which is about US$1.9 billion has been written off.“So, although we’ve had many debts written off, we keep incurring more debt and adding to it…We borrow for everything. You want to do something, we go to the IDB (Inter-American Development Bank) and they give you money for everything, for some programme, some survey and some nonsense. And we are creeping back up to the US$2 billion mark we had in 1992,” Gaskin warned.The Finance Ministry’s recent Public Debt Annual Report has highlighted that since 2015, there has been a 4.1 per cent rise in Guyana’s indebtedness to creditors. The report details that Guyana’s total debt, inclusive of external and domestic debt, increased to $330 billion as of December 2016. The Ministry attributed this to disbursements from the Export-Import Bank of China towards the Cheddi Jagan International Airport (CJIA) expansion project, as well as monies from multilateral creditors.A breakdown of the figures shows that total external debt amounted to $240 billion, 72.6 per cent of the total public debt. On the other hand, domestic debt stood at $90.6 billion, or 27.4 per cent of the total. Multilateral creditors continued to be the predominant creditor category.In 2012, the public external debt was $277.8 billion, but by early 2015, that had been reduced to $236 billion. In similar manner, the domestic debt had been reduced from $93.4 billion in 2012 to $81.6 billion in 2015 before a sudden surge in the figures after the new Government took office.The report noted that Guyana’s four main external creditors are the IDB; the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB); the State-owned Export-Import Bank of China (China EXIM Bank) and Venezuela’s State-owned oil company (PDVSA).Together, they constitute some 77.7 per cent of Guyana’s public external debt stock, as at end-December 2016, with the IDB the most dominant creditor. According to the report, the IDB has an average share of 42.0 per cent of the debt portfolio.The CDB is Guyana’s second largest creditor, accounting for 12.6 per cent of total public external debt. The Export-Import Bank of China follows closely with a 12.5 per cent share of external debt, while Venezuela’s PDVSA accounted for 10.6 per cent. Of significant note is the fact PDVSA has recently been declared to be in default of its debts by a trade group in the US.last_img read more

Prosecutors, investigators being trained to fight money laundering

first_imgProsecutors from the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP), and investigators from the Special Organised Crime Unit (SOCU), the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) and the State Assets Recovery Agency (SARA) on Tuesday morning commenced training in State Assets Recovery and Anti-money Laundering at the Police Officer’s Training Academy.The course is being run by experts from the State Assets Recovery Agency (SARA) and focuses on evidence gathering, successful prosecutions and the confiscation of assets and cash from criminal elements.British High Commissioner to Guyana, Gregory Quinn is quoted by the Department of Public Information as saying that the overarching objective of the training is toProsecutors and investigators at the training course being hosted at the Police Officer’s Training Academyensure that those involved in organised crime are prosecuted to the full extent of the law.“Criminals have to know that there can be no impunity for such crime. It is also relevant [to know that] cracking down on money laundering doesn’t just mean a successful prosecution that put people in jail, it also involves hitting criminals where it hurts them most; in their pockets.”According to the British High Commissioner, money laundering supports a variety of criminal activities, including drug running, corruption, extortion and terrorism. He said it is imperative that states prosecute every money laundering case uncovered.Advisor to the Special Organised Crime Unit (SOCU), Dr Sam Sittlington said justice is often delayed because of the lack of due process.“We see a lot of cases getting to court and failing in court. We see failings within the files that go to the DPP. We don’t want files to come back to us for amendments or corrections. We want one file going one time to the DPP or the Police legal adviser and that file being referred for charges.”The British High Commissioner said the United Kingdom remains committed to supporting Guyana in all areas relating to the security sector reform.last_img read more

Transfer rumours and paper review – Thursday, September 10

first_imgHere’s the top transfer-related stories in Thursday’s newspapers…John Stones will consider signing a new contract at Everton but only if they promise to let him leave for Chelsea if the Premier League champions match the £38million offer made at the end of last month. If Everton agree to the conditions, Stones’ advisors will seek to have the stipulation confirmed in a signed document. (Daily Mail)Roberto Martinez has ruled out Everton signing any free agents this autumn – and maintains the club’s business is done until the New Year. (Liverpool Echo)Lucas Leiva, the Liverpool midfielder, has admitted he thought his Anfield career was over before regaining his place before the transfer window closed. (Daily Telegraph)Louis van Gaal has admitted that the projected £58.8 million fee paid by Manchester United for Anthony Martial was “ridiculous”, but claimed that the teenage France striker had been signed with the club’s next manager firmly in mind. (The Times)Manchester United paid a bargain £6.5m for Bastian Schweinsteiger when they lured the 2014 World Cup winner from Bayern Munich in July, it has been revealed. (Manchester Evening News)Arsenal and Manchester City are ready to battle it out to sign Isco from Real Madrid. (Daily Express)Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri is weighing up a swoop for Dwight Tiendalli. The Dutch defender was released by Swansea on transfer deadline day and is on the look out for a new club. And the Foxes have taken the 29-year-old on trial ahead of a potential free transfer move. (Daily Mail)Tottenham will consider loan offers for rising attacking midfielder Alex Pritchard in January if fails to make a first team impact. (Daily Mail)And here’s the latest talkSPORT.com headlines…MLS chief dismisses suggestions Steven Gerrard could return to Liverpool on loanArsenal and Tottenham poised for transfer tussle over Swiss wonderkid Breel EmboloRoy Hodgson believes Manchester United’s Luke Shaw can be as good as Ashley Cole for England‘Don’t judge England until the 2018 World Cup,’ – ex-Liverpool winger John Barnes tells talkSPORTWayne Rooney eager to end Manchester United goal drought against Liverpoollast_img read more

Federer, Clijsters win big

first_img AD Quality Auto 360p 720p 1080p Top articles1/5READ MORESanta Anita opens winter meet Saturday with loaded card Clijsters, bothered by hip and back soreness, overcame 48 unforced errors and five doubles to beat Yuan, who had heavy strapping on both thighs and produced only two clean winners in the match. The second-seeded Clijsters needed treatment on her back and hip between sets and was not moving fluently, although she went to the net 14 times and won 12 of those points. “I’m happy with the win but my body doesn’t feel too good at the moment,” Clijsters said. “Although I didn’t play my best tennis, not even close, I always felt like I could win. “As long as (the hip) doesn’t get worse, I’ll keep fighting and see how I go.” Third-seeded Amelie Mauresmo advanced with a 7-6 (1), 6-2 win over French compatriot Emilie Loit, while 2004 French Open winner Anastasia Myskina had a 7-6 (4), 0-6, 6-3 victory over Jamea Jackson. MELBOURNE, Australia — Top-ranked Roger Federer advanced to the third round of the Australian Open with an emphatic 6-1, 6-4, 6-0 win over Florian Mayer today. The 24-year-old Swiss star finished with 38 winners and closed out the 1-hour, 12-minute match with an ace. “It’s so nice to get quick matches in the heat,” said Federer, whose next opponent is 30th-seeded Max Mirnyi. Seventh-seeded Patty Schnyder beat Shinobu Asagoe 6-1, 7-6 (9). Federer was so dominating that Mayer never had a game point after holding serve to pull within 4-5 in the second set. Always a perfectionist, the normally stoic Federer did seem a little annoyed at his 18 unforced errors that accounted for one-third of Florian’s points. And after smacking a forehand crosscourt winner for his third break of the final set, he allowed himself a little fist pump. He finished off the match with two service winners and his eighth and ninth aces, then hit a ball high into the stands. “If I keep on playing the way I am, not losing too much energy out on the court, maybe it’s going to pay back eventually,” said Federer, who has lost only 12 games in the two rounds. The overmatched Mayer tried a little of everything, charging the net and flicking soft drops from the baseline, but nothing worked as temperatures reached 88 degrees. He raised his racket to acknowledge the crowd after winning his first game the sixth of the match. But he became increasingly frustrated, shaking his head and even looking to the sky for help. No. 5 Nikolay Davydenko, a potential quarterfinal opponent for Federer, advanced with a 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 victory over Kevin Kim and No. 6 Guillermo Coria overcame Federico Luzzi 7-6 (10), 6-4, 6-3. In women’s matches, 17-year-old Michaella Krajicek defeated Sania Mirza 6-3, 7-5 and Samantha Stosur beat Ana Ivanovic by the same score. No. 16 Nicole Vaidisova and No. 20 Flavia Pennetta were other seeded players advancing. Mirza become the first Indian woman to reach the third round of a major with her breakthrough run here last year. She improved on that at the U.S. Open, where she reached the fourth round. But this time it was Krajicek, a half sister of 1996 Wimbledon champion Richard Krajicek, who made the third round of a major for the first time. 160Want local news?Sign up for the Localist and stay informed Something went wrong. Please try again.subscribeCongratulations! You’re all set!center_img “I thought I handled it well in the heat I’m very happy with my performance.” U.S. Open women’s champion Kim Clijsters spent 10 minutes longer on court than Federer in her 6-4, 6-2 victory over qualifier Yuan Meng. last_img read more

Tír Chonaill Gaels social evening last weekend a huge success

first_imgSummer Social & Presentation EveningA great night was had by all at our summer social evening at the Claddagh Ring on Saturday night. A good turnout saw the following awards presented:Young Player of the Year – Aidan Mc Garvey Senior Player of the Year – Liam GavaghanLadies Player of the Year – Lisa WalshThe Club Person of the Year was awarded jointly to Vince McCarthy and Jim Rice in recognition of their dedication and service to the club.The presentation was followed by an auction carried out by multi-talented club photographer Brendan Vaughan, with some fantastic prizes on offer. The club would like to thank all club members for supporting the night as well as those who sponsored prizes for the auction and the auction prize winners. A particular word of thanks to Marie Dillon who masterminded the night and to Finbar and all at the Claddagh Ring for their generous hospitality.CondolencesThe club would like to express its sympathy to former player Paddy Tinnelly and family on the passing of his father Patsy who passed away at the weekend. May he Rest in Peace.Fixtures & ResultsThe Seniors lost out to St. Kiernan’s in the league in sweltering conditions at the weekend at Greenford with the final score 1-13 to 0-12. The two teams lock horns again this coming Sunday, 31 st July at Greenford in the Conway Cup with throw-in at 12 noon at Greenford. The Juniors had a convincing win in the championship on Saturday after overcoming Shalloe Pearse’s in a full-blooded affair at Greenford winning by six points in the end 2-08 to 0-06. It’s back to the league next weekend when we face St. Anthony’s at Greenford on Saturday, 30 th with throw-in at6pm at Greenford.LadiesThe TCG Ladies suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of Dulwich Harps in Peckham on Sunday morning. Without a number of players and a referee, the game got off to a slow start from which it was difficult to recover from. The Gaels will come back fighting stronger after our first and only loss this year. Training as usual, Tuesday 7.30pm. CongratulationsCongratulations to the London Ladies who won the All-Britain Championship Final on Saturday in Coventry and in particular to the Tir Chonaill Gaels Ladies on the panel.Lottery Results 21 July 2016Numbers drawn 2, 13, 26 & 27Jackpot £3,000 – No Winner£25 Lucky Dip Winners:Niall Boyle, TCGHugh Cunningham, TCGConor Ferguson, c/o Liam SweeneyMichael McWilliamsNext draw 28th July at the clubhouseThank you for your support!Tír Chonaill Gaels social evening last weekend a huge success was last modified: July 25th, 2016 by Elaine McCalligShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:social eveningTir Chonaill Gaelslast_img read more

How Gareth Southgate copied the NBA and Lincoln to make England set-piece kings

first_imgEngland have turned into set-piece kings at the 2018 World Cup.The Three Lions have roared into the semi-finals and they have done so largely thanks to their prowess from corners and free-kicks.Eight of the 11 goals scored by Gareth Southgate’s side in Russia this summer have come from dead-ball situations. 10 “We expect a very difficult, tight and demanding match against England, like every match at the World Cup,” Luka Modric told Sky Sports.“We have to enjoy the moment and we then have to focus on England. I’m sure we will prepare well.“We watched the game today and saw how good they are from dead-ball situations. We will have to improve on our set-piece defending between now and Wednesday as we conceded from one at the end of the game today.”If the past three weeks are anything to go by, Southgate will have something else up his sleeve. 10 As the corner sails in, the tight unit disintegrates into separate directions One move known as the ‘Love Train’ sees four players lined up in a row ready for a corner.Standing in this tight unit confuses the opposition from getting anywhere near their mark before the group splinters in different directions.League Two outfit Lincoln have been using the move for two years to great success. You can listen to Croatia vs England live on talkSPORT on Wednesday night, kick-off 7pm. ‘The back-screen’ move was lifted directly from basketball, with the intention to create enough vertical space for a header and use a small advantage for big opportunity – in England’s case, a goal.In February, Southgate visited Minnesota in the USA to watch the Super Bowl. He also attended NFL coaching sessions and sat courtside at an NBA game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New Orleans to work out how England could make space in tight situations where tall defenders and star strikers are being marked to within an inch of their life. In Lincoln’s ‘Love Train’, 4 players bunch up in a line Compare that to the four set-piece goals scored in the three previous World Cups combined and you can see why Southgate has got a nation excited.England’s 47-year-old manager was hired in 2016 in the wake of his hapless predecessor Sam Allardyce, who was sacked in disgrace.Allardyce had continued Roy Hodgson’s bewildering decision to have Harry Kane taking England’s corners and free kicks.But Southgate’s improbable rejuvenation of the England team has turned the Tottenham man’s fortunes around, putting him within tangible reach of the Golden Boot. 10 Modric and Kane are both desperate for the coveted Golden Boot 10 10 Stones (6) arrives at the penalty spot completely unmarked and only needs to direct his header past the goalkeeper to score center_img 10 “On set plays, we’re a real threat,” Southgate said. “We’ve identified that as a key area in tournaments and a key area we felt we could improve on.”The improvements which saw Kane net twice in England’s opener against Tunisia are by no means trial and error. And it has a lot to do with Lincoln City and the NBA. 10 England manager Gareth Southgate celebrates Saturday’s quarter-final win over Sweden Getty 10 Apparently he would stay courtside long after a basketball game finished, questioning how attackers make space to how defenders protect the basket.England have become known in this year’s tournament for the efficient reliance on set pieces, their potency boosted by the coaching of Allan Russell, who specialises in attacking. Meanwhile their semi-final opponents, Croatia, have only scored from one set-piece and one penalty so far. 10 How did he do it? 10 But the lower leagues is not the only place Southgate looked for inspiration.This was clear in the 6-1 drubbing of Panama, where the talismanic captain scored a hat-trick – including two penalties – and John Stones scored England’s fourth.Kane’s club teammate Kieran Trippier is the new go-to for corners, free kicks and throw-ins, while in the box it is Liverpool skipper Jordan Henderson organising the players.Once the ball was on its way, two English players ducked out of the centre of the box, rather than fly in towards the goal mouth as would usually be expected.Further out at the edge of the box, Ashley Young muscled up on the Panamanian marking Stones enough for the defender to get free in the newly-vacated middle of the box and head home. John Stones (1) starts outside the box, with Ashley Young blocking off his marker. Jordan Henderson (2) rushes to the front post to create space behind him. Raheem Sterling (3) heads to the back post to further open up the space The ball goes over Henderson (4) while his run has taken the attention of two defenders. Stones (5) sprints for the gap created by Henderson, while Young’s screen leaves his marker trailing last_img read more

GARDENING WITH GARETH – HOME MADE POTIONS

first_imgHome made potions….With Horticulturist Gareth AustinGareth AustinGardeners are full of stories, like fisherman, and like fisherman many have no bases in fact. This applies to many home-made hotions and potions that gardeners use/recommend. However there are many ‘home made’ potions that show real results in the garden….here’s a few of my favourite, with some basics on how they work… Washing up LiquidSoapy water is a really effective control for greenfly, aphids and other small insects. These work on contact – so they have to come in direct contact with the wee soft skinned bugs you’re trying to control. So repeat application every 3-5 days is needed to ensure you get a high% of the bugs, and there best applied early in the day or late in the evening. The soapy water is great in that the vast majority of beneficial insects (the bees etc) aren’t affected by it at all. There is a big downside however, in that you can damage many plants with too high a concentration of soap, anything about 2% concentration can be damaging to plants. Best tip to avoid damage is to wash your plants a few hours after you’ve applied the soapy water.GarlicBrilliant stuff. In your shed you must keep a bottle of garlic concentrate (you’ll pick this up in good garden centres likes Robert Kee’s, Aurivo Stores, O’Donnel Garden Centre, The Flower Pot etc etc) or make your own by crushing a garlic bulb into a pint of water. Garlic can be used for so much in the garden. One of the most common is to prevent root fly damage to carrots, to do this after every time to weed, thin, or bruise the foliage in any way give the crops a wee overspray of some of your garlic. This masks the smell of the carrots; it’s this smell that attracts the adult rootfly to lay her eggs into the carrots. Another great use of Garlic is for slug control, and this works great!. Every 2 weeks give your slug sensitive plants – such as Hostas a wee water with the garlic water and this repels slugs from these plants, now is the time to be starting with the Garlic. Garlic doesn’t kill, it just repels.Rhubarb LeavesSomething which many gardeners throw away, there’s incorrect belief that these leaves are somehow dangerous to plants, but in fact they have a few great uses in the garden. Firstly as a compost activator – the big fleshy green leaves are a great source of fast acting nitrogen fertiliser, and will help to speed up the decomposition in a compost bin. Secondly as a slug repellent. The big rhubarb leaves contain high levels of Oxalic Acid, which is poisonous to us and many animals. If you boil up the rhubarb leaves you can make a great spray to deter caterpillars on your cabbages (and it’ll do Aphids too). MilkA milk sprayMakes a great fungicide, but you have to use full fat milk. I’ve used milk as a blackspot control on roses very effectively, and I’ve heard of other folks using it as a blight control on spuds. The milk works in two ways, the sugar content helps to give the plants a ‘pick up feed’ (we’ll cover this shortly) and the enzymes that it contains help to provide an antiseptic quality to the leaves of the plants. Milk works best as a preventative, so spray a 30% concentration of milk with water to susceptible plants, like the roses, or for mildew on courgettes, before any sign of disease. If the plant has some mildew or other disease then a spray of milk will help to prevent it spreading to the rest of the plant/neighbouring plants.HorseTail WeedHorsetail weed is an obnoxious weed, which is a nightmare to control. But it has a positive use in the garden, it makes a great fungicide for mildew and rust and for preventing damping off disease in seedlings. Just boil up a handful into a litre of water, and when cooled, bottle and then use this mixed 1 part to 5 parts water on the foliage and soil around the plants. HorsesTail Weed is high in silica, and this silica when applied to plants helps these plants to resist disease by increasing their light absorption skills, so in a way it’s a simple fertiliser.SugarThere are few more potent products in the house for garden health and wellbeing than Sugar. Plants Photosynthesise, converting sunlight into sugar every day of their lives, so what easier way to give plants a ‘pick up’ than to give them some sugar (remember your mum giving house plants Lemonade??). Sugar works wonders on the lawn too! Sugar is a very soft form of Nitrogen, and this promotes greening and development of foliage on plants. So if a plant is a bit poorly looking, give it some sugar, this will perk it up and encourage it to produce new foliage, and in turn this new leaves will allow the plant to photosynthesise and onwards and upwards.Urine Male urine can be useful in a few horticultural methods. Cat/Deer/fox repellent. The scent of male urine works well as an animal repellent, so if you’ve an issue with cats leaving presents in particular areas of the garden then send himself out to ‘irrigate’ the area. (or gather ‘supplies’ in an old milk carton and then apply a dash here or there around the garden. Urine is also a very effective fertiliser and compost activator, so again a dash now and again can be added to the compost pile, and a 20:1 mix with water makes a fast active fertiliser, high in Nitrogen and Phosphorus, which is great for lettuce and for the lawn.TinFoilMany insects navigate using light reflections and colour association. Tinfoil can really confuse many flying insects in the polytunnel, and in the case of chillies and peppers this can really improve the flavour and heat intensity of the fruit. Layer soil tinfoil on the soil between your plants and the extra light bouncing back onto the plants will do the trick. This layer of tinfoil will also confuse flying pests as they won’t know what way is ‘up’ so they’ll move onto other plants.MusicPlants respond to music, and to being talked too. Stay with me….there’s science here…not just some random loony statement! Plants produce a hormone called ethylene when being rocked by wind, plants growing in a greenhouse or a Gillespie Polytunnel can lack this hormone as there’s not a contact breeze in the tunnel like there would be in the garden, so plants in the tunnel can get leggy and never develop as strong a root system as plants grown outside (or where a fan is running in the tunnel). Music, especially frequencies around 5000 Hz, have shown great results in plant growths in confined spaces. Talking to the plants can be brought into the same discussion as above, but also talking to the plants bring in some extra carbon dioxide, this gas when supplied to plants increases the rate of Photosynthesis. So play music and talk to your plants in the tunnel…anyone asks…tell them Gareth told you to!There are many many more natural remedies advocated and discussed by many gardeners out there, with these and the ones above I’d also proceed with caution, especially when applying something to a product you’re planning on eating, or perhaps a plant which has sentimental value. So try a wee bit first, see the results, and then treat the rest of the plants. Someone once described this as the same method when getting your hair colours, when you get the patch tests done before you commit to the full colour.Next Week….Selecting, planting and managing trees in the garden Gareth Austin is resident Horticulturist with BBC Radio Foyle, a member of the Chartered Institute of Horticulturists and lectures in Horticulture with Donegal ETB. For more see www.garethaustin.com or join Gareth on Twitter @GardenerGarethGARDENING WITH GARETH – HOME MADE POTIONS was last modified: May 16th, 2015 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window)Tags:donegalGardening with GarethGareth Austinlast_img read more

Raiders’ loss to 49ers was worst in franchise history

first_imgSANTA CLARA — How do you bounce back from the worst regular-season loss in the history of the franchise?When there are still eight games to play.That’s where the 1-7 Raiders find themselves after getting blasted into a 34-3 oblivion Thursday night by the previously anemic 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Considering the way the Raiders performed, there are more humiliations to come.The 49ers came in to the game with a 1-7 record — including two losses to the Arizona Cardinals. A third-stringer in …last_img

Basis, market carry and futures

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest The weather in Minneapolis this week continues to be cool and wet. Maple trees are already starting to show fall colors, not unusual for this time of year, but certainly a sign that harvest is approaching.The USDA report showed yields higher than trader expectations, but there are still two weeks of weather that can have a big impact. Realistically, beans could easily trade to $8 or rally to $11. Bulls say the growth in demand for high protein crops (beans especially) have a very promising future. Bears say at some point stock piles need to be moved and processed. It’s still uncertain how much pressure will be placed on the market for the next few months.And then there is basis, which is the lowest its been in 10 years, coinciding with the highest carryout in 10 years. Kansas City, for example, was trading -50 earlier this year when normal values should be +10. These same spread values can be seen in the East and North too.Considering the large crops from both South America and the U.S., it’s relatively easy to understand why beans have remained in a carry market (where the market pays to hold beans) the entire year. However, it’s difficult to understand why bean values have stayed over $9.50 (sometimes $10) for any length of time with such low basis values across the country.I store my beans every year because I can’t logistically haul them to the processor at harvest and I prefer to move them after January. Therefore, I usually wait for a basis rally to move beans later in the year. Considering that last spring beans were trading at profitable levels while corn was not, it was reasonable to expect bean planted acres to increase in 2017, ultimately pushing down bean prices. If this happened basis levels may have eventually improved and I could take advantage.The USDA report showed higher than expected yields and rain is in the forecast for much of the Midwest, so futures have dipped. This helped push basis to the highest levels this year. Therefore, I pulled the trigger on my 2016 bean production, receiving -.55 against Nov futures (picked up on my farm). This was 15 cents better than my local processor’s bid and 25 cents better than my local shuttle loader. And this is after subtracting freight costs and potential dividends (note, I always include all cost factors to be sure I’m getting the best price).While basis levels aren’t where they have been compared to past years, I’m pleased I was able to sell my basis at the highest price of the year. 2016 market summary for beansWith basis levels secured I can calculate my final 2016 bean prices. Every year I analyze how well I did in futures, basis and market carry. Each of these marketing categories move independent of each other, so I want to identify each area of success and missed opportunity. I can then use this information to make better decisions in the future. Following details my cash value by marketing category.As mentioned above, the basis level I set was the highest this year so far. Below is a chart of how basis trended near my farm.Usually basis gets a bump after harvest, but basis remained flat due to huge U.S. and global bean stocks. With harvest just around the corner, the potential of a basis rally is low. Market carryBean market carry is very tricky. Carry is usually minimal (if available) because there is a narrow window when exporters want US beans after harvest, but before the March South American harvest. This year was a bit unusual because there was a fair amount of carry through August. In the end, it was a matter of playing the spread game between all the months.The chart below shows I captured 22 cents of market carry by moving sales to Aug. I then captured another 12 cents moving to Nov futures. I did well, but it’s fair to say there were a few times where I could have made a bit more premium, however I would have had to do things perfectly and capture several inverses too. Once again, I avoided the risk of a grand slam or a strike out possibility and went for the base hit.Futures2016 Average futures prices – $9.33There were several trades contributing to this position. The first started on 3/22/16 for $9.20 and the final was Apr 2016 (prices included 9.21, 9.60 and 10.00). Included in these positions are several options trades that included premium when beans were trading between $8.50-8.80 post 2015 harvest.In hindsight, I’m a little disappointed in the final results of my futures positions. But, I need to keep perspective by reading my notes when I made these trades:1. Everything I sold was ABOVE my breakeven points. Since I want to keep farming year after year, staying profitable is the most important goal.2. Considering the significant carryout in beans, many in the trade (including me) thought there was limited upside potential. (Therefore, refer back to #1)3. When I placed these trade orders in late 2015 and early 2016 futures were $8.72 and many feared $8 was a reality. Many farmers at the time would have considered $9.25 to be a success. Therefore, I took the opportunity when it was presented.4. Most farmers using a risk management strategy had a similar outcome. Risk management is extremely important to the success of my farm operation, so I’m very careful to make sure risk is minimized on all trades. I want constant base hits, not grand slams with a high likelihood of striking out.5. The eventual $11 futures was unexpected considering worldwide events. The South American harvest has a big impact on bean prices. Around 60% of global beans are produced there, so it’s easy to see why. When their harvest was wet and pods opened up and dropped kernels on the ground it had a big impact.6. The way $11 futures occurred was an outlier. It’s not something I’ve really seen before, and it’s hard to plan for. Summary of TradesMany farmers don’t look at the three marketing categories above independently, but they should. Looking at basis, carry and futures individually allows farmers to optimize their grain marketing strategy to more efficient and profitable levels while minimizing risk. Some years (like this one) I can hit the top of the basis market. Other times unexpected events can cause basis to move differently than historical trends suggest and I don’t hit the top. This can be said for futures and carry too.By breaking out the price categories farmers can maximize their profit potential. It’s impossible to predict the market, but farmers can help themselves by taking advantage of every opportunity out there.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. He can be contacted at jon@superiorfeed.com.last_img read more

Ohio Ag Net Podcast | Ep. 111 | A week of dry bales and wet field concerns

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest This jam-packed episode of the Ohio Ag Net Podcast, sponsored by AgriGold, covers the wide-ranging concerns of farmers in a time of prevented plant and cover crop questions, among others.On this week’s podcast, Matt, Dale and Joel talk about the recent meeting by the Ohio No-till Council at Ohio Northern, chatting with Jan Layman, Gary Wilson, and Bob Hendershot in the process. The third week of Feeding Farmers brought a talk with farmer Willie Murphy and his diversified operation. It’s also a busy time for listening sessions between the Ohio Director of Agriculture Dorothy Pelanda and farmers around the state. Pelanda, as well as farmer Christy Leeds, talks about the tough time had so far this year. All that, plus we hear from grain merchandiser Jon Scheve on the surprising June acreage report, in the Ohio Ag Net Podcast.last_img read more